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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38364/-1
CME Note: Faint and wide loop CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and as an extremely faint halo in STEREO A COR2. Source is a portion of filamentary material seen twisting as it lifts off at S20W30, which is the western-most side of the large filament eruption seen occurring around 2024-04-13T07:00Z. Liftoff of filamentary material is seen in SDO AIA 304 at 2024-04-13T07:10Z and dimming is seen in SDO AIA 193 at 2024-04-13T07:46Z, both from S20W30. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T21:00Z (-6.0h, +9.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2025-04-13T12:28Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 757
Longitude (deg): E009
Latitude (deg): S27
Half-angular width (deg): 43

Notes: Complex CME analysis: Modelled as 2 CMEs, the other attributed to CME: 2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 32.77 hour(s)
Difference: -4.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-04-14T07:50Z

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